Expansion Planning: Claim the Spot Before You Need It

The open corner next to you looks safe. Nobody is near it. Then the player on your right builds two roads in one turn and drops a settlement on it, and your next best spot is four roads away.

It happens in nearly every game. This lesson is about seeing it coming, and getting there first.

Why plan two settlements ahead?

Your opening gives you two settlements. To reach 10 points, you will almost always need more: new spots for income, and new settlements to turn into cities later.

Every new settlement needs a corner you can reach, and one that is still legal when you get there. That second part is the problem. The board has 54 corners. Each settlement fills one and blocks up to three neighbors, so the eight settlements placed in setup can take as many as 32 corners out of play (8 settlements times 4 corners each). Many of the corners left over are coastal or weak. The good ones go fast in the first ten turns.

They are also expensive to reach. A spot two roads away costs two roads plus the settlement itself:

That is 8 cards. You do not want to spend 8 cards chasing a spot someone else takes first.

How does the distance rule shape your options?

Settlements must sit at least two edges apart. That one rule does two things you need to plan around.

1. Your nearest new spot is two roads out. The corner at the end of one road is always too close to your own settlement. One road is never enough.
2. Every settlement blocks the corners around it, for everyone. An opponent does not need to take your spot. Settling right next to it kills it just as well.

The second one catches players all the time. You watch for someone heading to your corner, and they quietly settle one corner over instead.

There is a road rule to remember too. You cannot build a road through a corner where an opponent has a settlement or city. A single settlement in the right place can cut your path in half.

How do you choose your next two targets?

Do it after setup, before the first roll. Look at every legal corner within two or three roads of your settlements, and ask three questions:

• Is it worth it? Total its pips, the way you learned in Lesson 6.
• Does it fix something? Does it add a resource your opening lacks, or reach a port that fits your lane from Lesson 14?
• Who else can reach it, and how fast? Count their roads too.

Pick a Target 1 and a Target 2. The best pair lies down the same road, or on two branches of a fork. A road that points at two targets at once is never wasted. If someone takes one, you turn toward the other.

How do you win a road race?

When two players head for the same corner, count three things:

1. Roads needed. How many roads do you need to reach it? How many do they?
2. Turn order. Between your turns, every other player gets one turn. Who builds next?
3. Cards. Who can afford the roads and the settlement in the same turn?

Here is the key: reaching a spot is not owning it. Only a settlement claims a corner. If your road arrives but you cannot settle yet, the other player can still settle there, or settle next door and kill it.

Say Blue needs 2 roads to reach a corner, Orange needs 1, and Orange plays right after Blue.

The lesson: when you are behind in a race, either arrive and settle in one turn, or turn away early. The worst result is spending roads and losing anyway.

A Road Building development card changes the count, since it gives you two free roads. If you hold one, you may be closer than anyone thinks.

When you are ahead, and nobody can reach your target within a turn or two, you have time. You can spend on something else now, then build the road and the settlement together when the cards arrive.

When is blocking worth it?

You have two ways to block:

• A road on the edge they need. They have to go around, which costs them extra roads, or they may not be able to reach at all.
• A settlement on or next to their target. This is the strongest block, and it scores you a point.

A block is worth building when at least one of these is true:

• It also moves you toward your own target.
• It keeps the leader off a corner they need.
• It costs one road and saves you a race you would otherwise lose.

Do not spend two or three roads just to annoy someone who is not winning. That is road spam, mistake one in Lesson 12. One note for later: a settlement built on a corner in the middle of someone’s road splits that road in two for Longest Route. Lesson 19 covers when that matters.

How do you keep your plan fresh?

Your targets are not set for the whole game. At the start of each turn, take five seconds:

• Are both targets still legal?
• Is anyone closer than they were last turn?
• Can I settle this turn, or next?

When one target is gone, pick a new one right away. Always have two.

For more on placement and the road race, see our guide on how to win at Catan.

Try it this week

Your drill: mark your next two settlement targets before your first roll.

1. Pick two targets after setup. Before anyone rolls, choose Target 1 and Target 2. Write them down by the hexes they touch, such as “the 6 wheat, 9 ore, 4 wool corner.”
2. Count the roads. Note how many roads you need for each, and the fewest any opponent needs.
3. Aim your roads. Every road you build should point at one of your targets, and ideally both.
4. Check each turn. Still legal? Anyone closer? Can you settle this turn?
5. Replace at once. When a target is taken or blocked, write down a new one before your turn ends.
6. Review after the game. How many targets did you settle? For each one you lost, write down how: a road race, a settlement next door, or your own cards arriving too slowly.