Reading Your Opponent's Dominion Deck

Dominion has hidden information, but less than it seems. Your opponent’s hand is secret, and so is the order of their deck. Almost everything else happens on the table: the cards they gain, the cards they play, and the cards they trash. A player who pays attention knows roughly what their opponent’s deck holds and what it is likely to do next.

What the rules make public

The second edition rulebook spells it out:

• The number of cards in each player’s hand is public, and so is the top card of each discard pile.
• Every card in play is public.
• The Trash is face up, and anyone may look through it at any time.
• You may count the cards in your own deck at any time, without looking at them. You may not look through or count your discard pile, or another player’s deck or discard pile.

So you cannot count an opponent’s deck. You can remember what went into it. Every card bought or gained comes out of the Supply in plain view, and most players name their buys anyway.

Four things worth tracking

You do not need to remember every Copper. Track these:

1. Their money cards. Count their Golds and roughly their Silvers. Together with the odds tables from Level 3, that tells you how often they can hit $8.
2. Their key Action cards. Witches, Laboratories, Smithies, Villages. Count terminals against Villages, and you know how often their turns collide.
3. Their trashing. Every card they trash shrinks their deck, and the Trash mat shows it. A Chapel player who has trashed six cards has a deck that will cycle fast.
4. Their Victory points. Every Province, Duchy, and Estate they gain, plus their 3 starting Estates, minus any Curses. This is the one that decides endgames.

Reading the shuffle

You can see when your opponent shuffles. That moment tells you a lot. Every card that was in their discard pile at that moment is now in the new deck, under whatever was left of the old one. Every card they gain afterward sits in their discard pile until the next shuffle.

So if your opponent buys their second Gold right after shuffling, you know it will not show up for a while. If they buy it on the last turn before a shuffle, it will show up soon. The same reasoning tells you when their Witch is likely to return.

You can also notice where they are in their deck. A deck that just shuffled has many turns ahead before the next one. A player whose draw pile is almost empty is about to shuffle in everything they have bought.

Using what you know

• Endgame decisions. The penultimate Province rule only works if you know the score. Keep a running count of points so you know whether buying the second-to-last Province hands them the game.
• Their next big turn. If their Gold, Laboratories, and Market all went into the discard pile last turn and they shuffle now, a strong turn is coming. Plan your buy to stay ahead.
• Attacks. If their deck relies on large hands, a Militia hurts them more. If it is thin and full of draw, Militia hurts them less, because they draw back up.
• Moat timing. If their only Witch was just played, it is in their discard pile, and Moat is less urgent for the next few turns.

Keeping it in your head

Writing things down is not covered by the rulebook, so groups decide for themselves, and tournaments set their own policies. Ask before you assume. Either way, practice tracking in your head, since it is faster and works everywhere.

Start small: points only. Once that is easy, add their Golds. Then their key Action cards. Within a few games it becomes background attention, and you will find yourself knowing, not guessing, what their next shuffle holds.

If you play a digital version that shows a game log, use it to check your counts while you practice, then try to rely on it less.