Welcome to Level 2. At Level 1 you learned to brief, steer the Axis, time the gear and flaps, and land. Now you put numbers under those habits. Sky Team hides your partner’s dice, but it does not hide how dice behave. A handful of odds, learned once, will change how you lead, what you save, and when you spend coffee.
You need one table and three rules of thumb. All the numbers below come from a plain count of six-sided dice; check any of them with a pencil.
The one table
Many spaces on the Control Panel ask for one exact number, such as a Brake, or accept two numbers, such as each Landing Gear and Flaps space. The question is always the same: does the hand hold at least one die that fits?
| Dice still in hand | 1 number works | 2 numbers work | 3 numbers work |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 52% | 80% | 94% |
| 3 | 42% | 70% | 88% |
| 2 | 31% | 56% | 75% |
| 1 | 17% | 33% | 50% |
Read it as: with 4 fresh dice, the chance of holding a specific number, say a 2 for the first Brake, is about 52%. The chance of holding a 1 or a 2 for the first Flap is about 80%.
Rule 1: one coffee is one more number
A Coffee token moves a die up or down by 1. So a space that needs an exact 2 accepts a 1, 2, or 3 once a coffee sits on the board. That moves you from the first column to the third: from 52% to 94% with a full hand.
That is the real value of Concentration. A die spent on coffee in a quiet round does not just bank a point of flexibility. It turns your partner’s next exact-number job from a coin flip into a near certainty, and they can use it without a word. The Landing Procedure’s tips say not to wait for the final turn to make coffee; the table shows why.
Rule 2: lead the Axis early and in the middle
When you lead the Axis, your partner’s job is to answer with a die close to yours. Look at how many numbers can answer within one mark:
- Lead a 3 or a 4, and three numbers answer within one mark (2, 3, 4 or 3, 4, 5). With 4 dice, your partner holds one about 94% of the time.
- Lead a 1 or a 6, and only two numbers answer within one mark. That drops to about 80%.
Now look down the table. The same partner with only 1 die left has a 50% chance of answering a middle lead and 33% for an edge lead. Their odds shrink with every die they place. That is the arithmetic behind the rulebook’s warning that waiting until both players’ last die is extremely risky.
If both of you leave the Axis to chance, it gets worse. Two dice rolled with no plan match 1 time in 6, and land three or more apart 1 time in 3. Lead early, lead in the middle, and let your partner answer.
Rule 3: lead low to slow down, high to speed up
The Engines work the same way. At setup, a total of 4 or less keeps the plane in place. If you lead a 1, your partner needs a 3 or lower: three numbers, about 94% with a full hand. Lead a 2 and they need a 1 or 2: about 80%. Lead a 3 and only a 1 works: about 52%.
When you need two spaces, the mirror holds. At setup a total of 9 or more moves you 2. Lead a 6 and your partner needs a 3 or higher, which almost any hand holds. Lead a 5 and they need a 4 or higher. The lead die does most of the talking; choose one that leaves room for the answer.
Pairs and the Radio
Your own pair. Four dice hold at least one pair about 72% of the time. That matters later in the Flight Log, where some Special Abilities and modules reward matching dice.
Clearing your own space. Only a 1 on the Radio removes a plane from your Current Position. With 4 dice, that is about 52%. With one coffee, a 2 also works, and it rises to about 80%. If a plane sits in your space and you need to move, the coffee is the plan.
What the table leaves out
These numbers assume fresh, random dice. Real hands are not quite that. Your partner chooses where to place, the first die of each round tells you something about the rest, and a Reroll token gives both of you a second roll of the dice still hidden. Treat the table as the floor: it tells you how often the plain dice will cooperate, and your reading of your partner adds to it.
If you like the question of where luck ends and skill starts, our piece on luck versus skill in board games takes it further.
Next lesson
The Sky Team Dice Budget: Plan the Whole Flight
Next, the dice budget: count every die of a flight in the first briefing, and plan the jobs round by round before you take off.
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