Wingspan Odds: The Birdfeeder, Predators, and the Deck

Wingspan feels luckier than it is. The dice and the deck are random, but they are made of known parts. Once you know the parts, many choices that felt like hope become small, sensible bets.

This lesson builds on the food lesson and the scoring powers lesson. The numbers are our own calculations from the base-game dice and the 170 base-game birds.

The dice

Each of the 5 food dice has six faces: invertebrate, seed, fish, fruit, rodent, and one face showing invertebrate or seed.

So on any single die:

• Fish, fruit, or rodent: 1 face in 6, about 17%.
• Invertebrate or seed: 2 faces in 6, about 33%, counting the split face.

Will the food I need be in a fresh feeder?

When all 5 dice are freshly rolled, the chance that at least one shows a given food:

So a fresh roll gives you a fish a bit better than half the time. If your plan needs a fish this round, a bird or a forest power that gains fish from the supply is worth more than it looks.

How often can I reroll?

A reroll needs every die left to show the same face.

The last line is the useful one. With one die left you may always reset the whole feeder before taking it, so a fresh 60% or 87% shot at your food is always there at the end. If you are taking two foods and two dice are left, take one, and if the last die is not what you need, reset the feeder before taking your second.

There is a cost. A reset hands the next player a full, fresh feeder. If they need something specific, you might be giving them their best roll of the round.

Predators

Dice-rolling predators roll every die that is not in the feeder and succeed if any show their food. Each die is a 1 in 6 chance.

The number of dice outside the feeder changes all the time. Right after a refill it is zero, and the hunt has nothing to roll. When the feeder is down to one die, four are outside. So activate a dice hunter’s row when the feeder is low, and avoid it right after a reset.

Card-hunting predators look at one card from the deck. In a base-game deck, about 57% of birds have a wingspan under 50 cm, 70% under 75 cm, and 78% under 100 cm. A 75 cm hunter succeeds about seven times in ten.

Drawing the bird you need

Bonus cards print the share of birds that qualify. You can use the same idea for any trait. The chance you see at least one in a few draws from the deck:

The table treats each draw as a fresh chance, which is close enough for a deck this large.

Some useful shares: about half of base birds can live in each habitat, 85 in the wetland and 83 each in the forest and the grassland. Fish eaters are about 18%. Predators are about 13%.

So if you need one more predator for your Falconer card and have three draws left, you have about a one in three chance. That is not nothing, but it is not a plan. If you need a wetland bird for a goal, three draws make it very likely.

The tray is free information

The three face-up birds are a fourth, fifth, and sixth look you do not have to gamble on. When you draw, check the tray first. A card that fits on the tray beats a 1 in 3 shot in the deck.

Keep it light

You do not need these tables mid-game. Remember three facts: a specific rare food shows about 60% of the time in a fresh feeder, one die left means you can always reset, and a trait at 13% is a long shot in a few draws. Those cover most decisions.

For more on where luck ends and skill starts, see our article on luck and skill in board games.