Chasing Seven: When the Flip 7 Bonus Is Worth It

Lesson 3 warned against chasing seven every round. That still holds, but the bonus is not a trap either. It is a prize with a price, and the price depends on which numbers you hold.

What the bonus is worth

Flip seven different number cards and the round ends at once, for everyone, and you add 15 points after your numbers, your x2, and your plus cards. The 0 counts as one of the seven.

The cheapest possible Flip 7 row is 0 through 6, which totals 21. Add the bonus and even the smallest Flip 7 scores 36. Most score more. So a Flip 7 is always a big round.

The odds from scratch

A player who hits every turn and never stays, in a fresh deck, reaches seven numbers about 9 percent of the time. That figure is from our simulation of the real 94-card deck, counting only number cards and ignoring Freezes. Holding a Second Chance from the start lifts it to about 25 percent.

And a player who stays around 25 points, as lesson 4 suggests, almost never sees the bonus. In our simulation it happened in fewer than 1 round in 1,000. You do not get Flip 7 by accident. You get it by deciding to.

The odds from your row

What changes everything is the row you already have. The same simulation, starting from a given row and hitting until a bust or seven:

Two patterns stand out. Low rows are good chases, because low numbers have few twins in the deck and the numbers you still need are the common ones. High rows are bad chases, because every big number you hold has many twins waiting, and the numbers you still need are the rare small ones. A Second Chance helps every row, and on the weaker rows it doubles your odds or better.

The six-card test

Six numbers down is where the bonus decision gets real. One more card either finishes you, busts you, or does neither (a modifier or an action card). Here is the test: count the finishers, every copy of the numbers you are missing, and the busters, your bust count from lesson 4. Then weigh them against what you stand to lose.

Four rows, in a fresh deck with only your own cards gone. “Average change” is what one more hit adds to your round score on average.

0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Worth 15. Finishers: every 6 through 12, which is 63 of 88 cards. Busters: 10. Average change about +16. Hit, and smile.

1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9. Worth 29. Finishers: every 0, 3, 5, 8, 10, 11, and 12, which is 50 cards. Busters: 23. Average change about +7. Hit.

0, 3, 5, 8, 10, 12. Worth 38. Finishers: 40 cards. Busters: 33. Average change about -3. Close, but stay.

2, 5, 6, 9, 11, 12. Worth 45. Finishers: 34 cards. Busters: 39. Average change about -11. Stay, clearly.

So a rough rule: with six numbers, hit when the finishers clearly outnumber the busters, and lean stay when your row is worth more than about 35 and the counts are close. The more points you hold, the more finishers you need to justify the risk.

Helping yourself get there

Some tools make a chase cheaper:

• A Second Chance. It turns one bust into a stall. With a low row and a Second Chance, push.
• A Flip Three on yourself. If you are dealt one with a short, low row, keeping it means three cards with little risk, as lesson 6 showed. A row of 0 through 5 taking a Flip Three reaches seven about 86 percent of the time.
• Counting. Late in the deck, the tally from lesson 7 tells you whether your finishers are still in it. If the small numbers have already gone by, the chase is worse than the table shows.

The bonus as a weapon

A Flip 7 does more than score. It ends the round for everyone, at once. Players still in the round score what they have, so it does not wipe them out, but it stops every other row from growing.

That makes the bonus a tool in a race. If you lead and a chaser is building a huge row, finishing your seven shuts their round down. If you trail and the leader has stayed, a Flip 7 is the biggest single round you can make, 36 points at the very least. Lesson 9 puts both sides of that race together.

The short version

• Low numbers in your row: the bonus is a live target.
• High numbers in your row: bank instead, even one card away.
• Six numbers: count finishers against busters, and weigh them against your points.