Know the Decks: Splendor Card Patterns and Odds

Welcome to Level 3. At Level 2 you learned to read the table: what each player can buy, which noble race you can win, and when to end the game. Now you look past the table at the decks themselves. Splendor shuffles its cards, but the cards follow a tight pattern. Know it, and the face-down decks stop being a mystery.

The counts below come from a full card list of the base game, checked against the 40, 30, and 20 split in the rulebook.

The same in every color

Each color has exactly 18 cards: 8 in level 1, 6 in level 2, and 4 in level 3. Every color has the same mix of costs and points, just rotated. Add up all the gems the cards ask for, and every color is asked for equally at every level.

So no color is better in the box. Only the table makes one color better in a given game, through the nobles and the face-up cards. That is why reading the setup matters so much.

What each deck holds

Level 1, 40 cards. 35 are worth 0 points: 10 cost 3 gems, 10 cost 4, and 15 cost 5. The other 5 are worth 1 point and cost 4 gems of a single color. Each color has 2 three-gem cards, its cheapest way in.

Level 2, 30 cards. 10 are worth 1 point and cost 7 or 8. 15 are worth 2 and cost 5, 7, or 8. 5 are worth 3 and cost 6 gems of the card’s own color. Build one color deep, and its 3-point card gets very cheap.

Level 3, 20 cards. In each color there are 4:

The wheel again

The nobles lesson put the colors in a circle: White, Blue, Green, Red, Black, and back to White. The level 3 cards follow the same circle.

The big single color in each level 3 card is the color just before it on the wheel. The Blue 4-point and 5-point cards both want 7 White. The Green ones want 7 Blue. The Red ones want 7 Green, the Black ones 7 Red, and the White ones 7 Black. The 12-gem 4-pointer leans on that same color for 6.

That gives you a rule worth remembering: a deep color pays for the level 3 cards of the next color on the wheel. Six or seven White bonuses make three Blue level 3 cards cheap. And the 5-pointer also wants 3 of its own color, so a little Blue on top makes it nearly free.

It also explains why neighboring colors work so well. Build White and Blue, and you are inside two or three nobles at once, plus the level 3 cards of Blue and Green lean on your bonuses.

Player-written strategy notes on Board Game Arena list the same pairings, with a fair warning that they are tendencies, not guarantees. A few cards in the lower levels break the pattern.

The odds behind a blind reserve

A blind reserve from the level 3 deck gives you a Gold and a random level 3 card. You can put odds on that card.

At the start, the level 3 cards split like this: 5 worth 5 points, 10 worth 4, and 5 worth 3. That is an average of exactly 4 points. Four of the twenty are face up, so the deck holds the other 16.

Count what is not in the deck. If one 5-pointer is face up, 4 of the 16 deck cards are 5-pointers: a 25% chance. If none is face up, 5 of 16: about 31%. Every 5-pointer bought or reserved face up lowers it again.

The harder question is whether you can afford it. For any one color, only 3 of the 20 level 3 cards lean on 6 or 7 of it. So if you have one deep color, a blind card is built for it about 3 times in 20 at the start, roughly 15%. Most blind level 3 cards will want colors you do not have.

That is why a blind level 3 reserve is mostly a Gold with a lottery ticket attached. Take it when the Gold is what you want, and treat a good card as a bonus.

A blind level 1 card is safer. Every level 1 card costs 3 to 5 gems, so you can almost always buy it later.

Tracking the decks

You do not need to count every card. Track the few that matter:

• The 5-pointers. Five exist. Note each one as it appears.
• The level 3 cards of your next color. Three cards lean on your deep color. Know which have appeared.
• The row refills. Each time a level 3 card leaves the table, a new one appears. Check whether it changes anyone’s path to 15.

Late in the game, this is how you know whether waiting for a better card is a plan or a hope.