Sushi Go! Set Odds: Tempura, Sashimi, and Dumplings

Tempura, sashimi, and dumplings are the backbone of most scores. There are 14 of each in the 108-card deck. That sounds like plenty, but most of the deck never reaches your hands in a given round, and every card you need is also a card someone else can take. This lesson puts real numbers on it. All figures come from the deck counts in the official rules.

How many are in a round

Each round deals one hand per player. The number of each set card in play depends on how many cards are dealt:

The math: cards dealt times 14, divided by 108. In a four-player round, that is 32 times 14 over 108, about 4.1 of each.

The last column is the key. On average, each player’s fair share is about one tempura, one sashimi, and one dumpling per round. A pair of tempura is twice your share. A sashimi set is three times your share.

Sashimi: you need most of them

To finish a sashimi set, you need three of the roughly four sashimi in a four-player round. It is also why the rules warn that scoring more than one sashimi set in a round is very hard.

If you already hold one sashimi on turn one, here is how often at least two more are somewhere in the round’s other hands:

• 2 players: about 72 percent
• 3 players: about 88 percent
• 4 players: about 94 percent
• 5 players: about 96 percent

Those numbers look encouraging, and they are why sashimi tempts people. But they only say the cards exist. With more players, more hands pass through more people before reaching you, and anyone with one or two sashimi will grab the next. More players means more sashimi in the round and more competition for every one.

When sashimi is a good bet:

• You see two sashimi in your first hand. Take one; the other may wheel.
• Nobody else at the table has started sashimi.
• It is early. Starting sashimi after the halfway point of a round rarely finishes.

When to stop: If two players already hold sashimi, the round’s supply is being split three ways, and the 10 points will likely go to nobody.

Tempura: you need two

A tempura pair needs one more card after the first. If you hold one tempura at the start of a round, at least one more is dealt into another hand about 98 percent of the time with three players, and about 99 percent with four. The question is still whether it reaches you, but a pair needs only one lucky pass, not two.

Tempura is the steadier set. It pays 2.5 points per card, less than sashimi’s 3.3, but it fails far less often.

Dumplings: never zero

Dumplings are the safe set. Every dumpling scores something, and each one adds more than the last: 1, then 2, 3, 4, and 5. There is no risk of a zero, only a cap at five.

The catch is the supply. Five dumplings in one round means taking most of the 4 or so dealt in a four-player round, plus luck. Two to three dumplings is a common, healthy result. Three dumplings score 6, four score 10.

Dumplings shine when other players ignore them. If nobody else is collecting, each dumpling is likely to wheel.

Comparing the three

Player count changes everything

• 2 players: only about 2.6 sashimi per round. A sashimi set needs nearly all of them. But you see both hands, so you know exactly where they are.
• 3 players: a good count for sets. Hands are large and return quickly.
• 4 and 5 players: more cards in the round but more people between you and the cards. Favor tempura and dumplings over sashimi unless your first hand gives you a head start.

The habit

At the start of every round, look at your first hand and multiply what you see by the number of players. It is a rough guess, but it tells you whether this is a sashimi round, a tempura round, or a dumpling round. Then watch the hands that come after and adjust as soon as someone else commits to your set.